Toronto-area Home Price Outlook Improves for 2026

Following a slow start to the spring selling season, the housing market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has begun to find its footing. As a result, Royal LePage has raised its 2026 home price forecast.

While prices are still predicted to decline, the real estate brokerage is now expecting a 2% year-over-year drop in the fourth quarter, an improvement from its original projection of a 4.5% decline made at the end of last year.

Market conditions are tightening in the region. Sales activity has steadily improved from one month to the next, while the number of new listings has declined. Many sellers are choosing to delay listing their homes rather than accept lower offers, contributing to a gradual increase in prices. From the first to the second quarter, the aggregate home price rose 0.9%.

Despite the recent momentum, prices remain below last year’s levels. The aggregate home price in the GTA slid 4.6% year-over-year to $1,101,700 in the second quarter. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home declined 3.6% to $1,396,500. The median price of a condominium apartment dropped 5.7% to $660,000.

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home declined 2.7% year-over-year to $1,120,800 in the second quarter of 2026. The median price of a single-family detached home decreased 9.8% to $1,515,000, while condo apartments fell 2.5% to $658,600.

Although economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on consumer confidence, keeping many prospective buyers on the sidelines, Royal LePage expects market activity to increase in the second half of the year. The exception is the condo sector, which is likely to remain soft due to elevated inventory and selling pressure from investors.

If supply continues to decline and pent-up demand remains significant, particularly among move-up buyers who have delayed purchasing decisions over the past two years, the market could become more competitive this fall as conditions rebalance.