What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect in 2026

After a tumultuous 2025, marked by economic and political shifts, 2026 emerges as a crucial reset year for Canada’s housing market.

According to Royal LePage’s market survey forecast, the country’s residential real estate market is expected to post modest price gains next year and an increase in sales activity, as buyers continue to move off the sidelines.

But while home prices are predicted to rise in major markets, Canada’s two most expensive cities — Vancouver and Toronto — are likely to buck this trend.

The average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area is forecast to decrease 4.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, to $1,054,129. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to decrease a modest 1% to $1,382,832, while the median price of a condominium is predicted to decline 6.5% to $615,885.

After the fall market was more of a whisper than a roar — in a typical cycle, this would be one of the busiest times of the year to buy and sell — market activity is projected to remain fairly flat throughout winter. Any material shift is unlikely to emerge before spring and even if there is a recovery, it will probably build gradually.

The slowdown in market activity this year has not been driven by borrowing costs alone and buyers trying to time the best deal. Even with four interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, bringing the key rate down to its current level of 2.25%, the market hasn’t seen a noticeable boost in buyer engagement. Other factors like economic uncertainty, particularly concerns around job security and ongoing tariff discussions, and employers signalling a return to in-office workplaces five days a week are keeping many homebuyers on the sidelines. Only when confidence improves, economic signals stabilize and buyers begin to feel more secure in making long-term decisions will the market see a marked rebound.