September 2024 Real Estate Market Update
Toronto-area home sales increased in September, indicating buyers are back house hunting and starting to take advantage of lower interest rates, but the kick-off month of the fall market performed more moderately than expected.
Sales were up year-over-year by 8.5%, and increased 8.2% on a monthly basis compared to August, after a subdued spring and summer market. This is the biggest year-over-year sales increase since February, when sales climbed by almost 18%.
However, while sales ticked higher, so did available listings. New listings entered into the MLS system amounted to 18,089 — a 10.5% increase from September 2023. Total inventory was elevated at 25,612 properties for sale.
To highlight the supply-demand imbalance, the 10-year historical monthly average for active listings is 16,641, indicating a 53% surplus of homes for sale compared to typical levels. The historical average for sales in September is 7,747, marking a 35% deviation from the norm.
A better supplied market provided buyers with a wide selection of properties to choose from and greater negotiating power, resulting in a reduction of sales prices. The average selling price for September was $1,107,291, compared to $1,118,215 the year prior. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price edged up slightly compared to August. Meanwhile, the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was down by 4.6% year-over-year. The index is a measure of real estate prices that provides a clearer picture of market trends over traditional tools like mean or median average prices.
Detached homes across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continued to perform strongly, with the average sale price soaring to $1,423,056. This represents a robust 10% increase compared to the same period last year, further underscoring the desirability of detached properties in the region. Month-over-month, however, the sector saw little change in prices. Inventory levels rose to 11,241 homes, marking a significant 33% year-over-year increase.
Semi-detached homes also showed resilience, with the average sale price reaching $1,090,749, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous month while holding steady year-over-year. Inventory rose to 1,333 properties, indicating a 23% year-over-year increase. Sales activity began to pick up as well, with 446 homes sold, marking a 4% increase from August, and an 11% improvement from September 2023.
Condominium prices, on the other hand, faced ongoing challenges, with the average price at $682,542. A total of 1,312 condo sales were recorded in the month, reflecting a market largely stagnant compared to last year, but a significant 34% below the 10-year monthly average. At the same time, inventory levels have risen steadily, reaching 8,981 active listings — a 77% increase from historical averages.
The outlandish statistic of the month comes from the townhouse sector. For the first time, there were more than 2,000 active listings, representing a staggering 107% increase from the preceding 10 years of September data. With such an abundance of inventory, buyers have the unique opportunity to capitalize on the surplus, with the average sale price settling at $982,656.
Looking ahead, the Toronto-area real estate market remains in a delicate balance. While interest rate cuts and increased inventory provide more opportunities for buyers, price stability across various property types will likely depend on how quickly demand catches up with supply. As we move into the final months of the year, there is cautious optimism for stronger activity. The GTA continues to be a desirable option, but the market’s performance will hinge on its ability to absorb the elevated levels of inventory while maintaining buyer confidence.
If you would like to know how the real estate market performed in your neighbourhood, contact Clare Tattersall at 647-625-3282 or clare@realtorontowest.com.
