January 2025 Real Estate Market Update
The year started off with Greater Toronto Area (GTA) sales down by 7.9% and listings up by 48.6% compared to January 2024. The average selling price for all home types saw little change over the same time period, increasing slightly by 1.5%. Month-over-month, overall prices were down by 2.4% to $1,040,994.
Interestingly, this price point has been seen twice before in recent years, both times in January 2023 and January 2024. On each previous occasion, values rebounded in the following months, suggesting this level could act as a potential floor for the market. But if this support line fails to hold, price volatility is likely to follow.
While home values remain near multi-year lows, sellers have not been deterred. Newly active listings reached 12,392 in January, bringing the total active inventory to 17,157 by the end of the month. This represents a 92% increase compared to the 10-year historical monthly average of 8,916.
On a positive note, home sales rose by 14.5% from December to January to 3,847 transactions. However, sales were down more than 17% compared to the 10-year monthly average.
As the market adjusts, various home segments continue to show different trends. Detached homes recorded a 1.5% monthly decline, bringing the average sale price to $1,377,430. The month saw 5,000 newly active listings — the highest January total since 2013. By the end of the month, active listings reached 6,832, reflecting a 12% monthly increase and a 90% surge from January 2024. Detached home sales totalled 1,580, an 11% increase from December.
The semi-detached segment remained essentially flat year-over-year, with the average sale price at $1,047,728. Active listings finished the month at 798, reflecting a 143% increase and a 98.5% jump from the 10-year monthly average. Semi-detached sales rose 20% from December, totalling 349 transactions.
Townhomes were one of the few asset classes to record an annual price increase. The average sale price of $983,856 represents a 2% gain year-over-year. Active inventory reached 1,180, a staggering 137% increase compared to the 10-year monthly average. Townhome sales totalled 409, up 8% from December.
The condominium segment continued its downward trend, marking its ninth consecutive month of price declines. The average condo sale price fell to $670,675, representing a 1.6% decline on both a monthly and yearly basis. Newly active condo listings surged to 4,589, setting a new monthly record. Total condo inventory reached 6,913, marking a 47% yearly increase and a 134% surge from the 10-year monthly average. Sales, however, showed some strength, rising 21% month-over-month, with 1,161 properties put under contract.
The January numbers indicate the GTA real estate market remains in transition. Prices have softened and inventory levels are at historic highs, but buyer activity is showing some resilience. The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether this is a temporary reset or the beginning of a more prolonged adjustment.
Right now, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board is expecting a well-supplied housing market will keep average annual home price growth at the rate of inflation. The average selling price in the GTA is predicted to increase modestly over the course of the year, reaching $1,147,000, up by 2.6% over 2024, for all home types combined. Price growth will be stronger for single-family homes, as compared to the well-supplied condo market.
A growing number of homebuyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the spring market, resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices. However, the positive effect of lower mortgage rates could be reduced, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of trade disruptions on the economy and consumer confidence.
If you would like to know how the real estate market performed in your neighbourhood, contact Clare Tattersall at 647-625-3282 or clare@realtorontowest.com.
