Housing Market Treading Water Amid Trade Turmoil

While real estate activity is trending up in Canada’s more affordable regions, the Toronto-area market has gone from a slam dunk rebound year to virtually stalling.

After entering 2025 with momentum, the region recorded softer sales and modest price declines of 2.7% to $1,146,100 in the first quarter — a major shift compared to where we ended 2024.

In Toronto-proper, the average price of a home decreased 3.1% year-over-year to $1,124,600 during the same time period.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home dipped by a modest 0.8% year-over-year to $1,693,200, while the median price of a condominium fell 3.9% to $686,700.

On a quarterly basis, however, property prices in the city increased moderately.

This is an indication that we’re seeing a market shaped by caution, not desperation. Inventory is increasing and new listings are continuing to come online but sellers — in the vast majority of cases — are not panicking. While average days on market are up, prices have not collapsed; sellers are being patient.

Buyers who are active today tend to be those who’ve managed their savings well. What they’re finding is a large selection of properties and the luxury to be able to negotiate terms and take their time. Generally, market conditions are fairly balanced, notwithstanding the condo segment. Condominiums may be discounted but activity is still sluggish. Even with deals on the table, buyers in this market are hesitant.

While the typical spring market didn’t kick-off as expected, with geopolitical uncertainty playing a major role in consumer caution, a late spring market could emerge following the federal election, even into the summer months, provided the situation with the United States does not deteriorate further.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised down modestly to reflect current market conditions. It was originally predicted that the average price of a home would increase 5%; however, this was before Donald Trump’s inauguration.